Former President Donald Trump maintains a strong position among key swing state voters and has made historic inroads with Hispanic, black, and young voters, New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer polling found Monday.
Trump leads in five of the six swing states. In four of the five states (excluding Pennsylvania), Trump’s lead is outside the margin of error:
- Arizona: Trump 49%-42% (registered voters), 49%-43% (likely voters)
- Georgia: Trump 49%-39% (registered voters), 50%-41% (likely voters)
- Michigan: Trump 49%-42% (registered voters), Biden 47%-46% (likely voters)
- Nevada: Trump 50%-38% (registered voters), 51%-38% (likely voters)
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47%-44% (registered voters), 48%-45% (likely voters)
- Wisconsin: Biden 47%-45% (registered voters), Trump 47%-46% (likely voters)
The hypothetical matchup results were similar when third party candidates were included in the polling. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won an average of ten percent throughout the six states but appeared to take support equally from both Trump and Biden:
The polling data appeared mostly unchanged since swing state polling in November. Six months later, Nate Cohn, the Times’s chief political analyst reported on the poll released in May:
- The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israel’s war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president’s standing.
- More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains.
- Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
One new data point found that Biden suffers from the Supreme Court’s ruling in 2022 that abortion is a state issue. About 20 percent of voters blamed Biden more than they blamed Trump for the ruling.
The poll sampled 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from April 28 to May 9 with the margin of error ranging from 3.6 points (Pennsylvania) to 4.6 points (Georgia) and joined together at 1.8 points.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.