Poll: Arizona Republican Senate Candidate Kari Lake Surges Against Democrat Ruben Gallego

Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake has surged three points since March and is gaining on Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to a Tuesday Emerson College/Hill poll.

The poll found a neck-and-neck race for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) seat in the Grand Canyon state, with Trump-backed Lake at 43 percent and Gallego at 45 percent. Another 12 percent of the 1,000 registered voter respondents were undecided.

Lake is up three points from a March Emerson College/Hill poll in which she registered at 40 percent, while Gallego is up one point. In February, she was at 39 percent, and Gallego was at 46 percent. The change over two months marks a net five-point gain for the former Fox 10 Phoenix anchor.

The candidates tied with independents at 39 percent, while 22 percent of the demographic were undecided about who they would back.

For months, there was strong potential for a three-way race in the Grand Canyon State until Sinema, who defected from the Democrat Party in December 2022, announced she would not seek reelection. Lake, who has the backing of U.S. senators and top conservatives, is squaring off with Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the Republican primary, while Gallego is unopposed on the Democrat side.

The poll also gauged the state of the presidential race in Arizona, finding that former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in both a head-to-head race and in a crowded field. In a two-way race including undecided leaners, Trump leads Biden 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

When the field expands to include five candidates, Trump leads by four points; he takes 44 percent of the response, followed by Biden at 40 percent, and independent Robert F Kennedy Jr. at nine percent. Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West tie at one percent.

When asked to select the top issue facing Arizona, 28 percent of respondents pointed to immigration. The economy came in a close second with 25 percent, and “abortion access” came in third at 12 percent.

The poll was conducted April 25-29, 2024, and has a ± three percent margin of error.