Independents are tipping for former President Donald Trump in a general election race against President Joe Biden and third-party candidates, the latest I&I/TIPP poll found.
The survey asked respondents, “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?” The candidates include Trump, Biden, independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
In that matchup, Trump and Biden tied with 38 percent support each. Another 22 percent chose Kennedy, followed by two percent for West, one percent for Stein, and two percent who chose “other.” Another nine percent were unsure.
Among independents, specifically, however, Trump took the lead with 31 percent support to Biden’s 29 percent support. Independents support RFK Jr. with 18 percent support in that scenario, followed by four percent who support West, one percent who support Stein, and four percent who said “other.” Another 15 percent of independents said they were “not sure.”
Interestingly, the survey points out that Biden has the edge among independents when it is a head-to-head matchup between himself and Trump, but that will not be the reality, as of Wednesday.
Per the survey:
If the choice is just between Trump and Biden, with no third-party or independent challengers, Trump gets just 6% of the Democratic vote, 84% of the Republican vote, and 33% from the independents. Biden gets 84% of the Democratic vote, 6% of the GOP, and 35% of independents.
So Biden has a small two percentage-point lead among independents when facing only Trump.
…
To sum up, third-party and independent candidates cost Biden six percentage points of his overall independent vote support, compared to a loss of just two percentage points for Trump.
The survey was taken April 3-5, 2024, among 1,265 registered voters. It has a ± 2.8 percent margin of error and comes as other polls show Trump leading Biden not only in key swing states but on a range of key issues, including the economy and immigration.
It also coincides with the latest survey from the Economist/YouGov, which found Trump leading Biden among independents by nine percentage points.
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