Poll: Montana Republican Tim Sheehy Leads Opponent by Three Points in Senate Race

Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is leading his opponent, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), by three points in a close race.

A poll that J.L. Partners conducted between March 26 and 29, 2024, showed that Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, had a slight advantage over the Democrat incumbent.

The poll, which surveyed roughly 503 voters, showed that 48 percent of voters said they would vote for Sheehy, 45 percent said they would vote for Tester, and seven percent said they were undecided. The poll reportedly had a ± 4.3 percent margin of error.

Out of those surveyed, Sheehy was found to be more favorable among male and older voters, while Tester was more favorable among women, independents, and younger voters.

Sheehy announced in June 2023 that he was running for the U.S. Senate in Montana against Tester, noting that he was “answering the call to serve again.”

In a video announcing his candidacy, Sheehy expressed that he wanted to “create a better future” for his children and voters’ children. Sheehy added that his campaign was “about service, God, and country, not politics as usual.”

Sheehy received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in February against Republican opponent Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT). Rosendale ended his Senate campaign less than a week after launching it, according to NBC News.

Tester was first elected in 2006, was reelected in 2012, and again reelected in 2018 after narrowly defeating Rosendale, according to his Senate website. Tester received 50.3 percent of the vote in 2018, while Rosendale received 46.8 percent.

Tester remains the lone Democrat in Montana to hold a statewide constituency position.