Only 24 percent of independent voters believe President Joe Biden will secure reelection in November, a YouGov poll found this week.
The poll asked respondents, “Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the presidential election if Joe Biden were the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate?”
Less than a quarter of independents said Biden would defeat Trump, and only three-fourths of Democrats predicted a Biden win:
- Independents: 24 percent
- Democrats: 72 percent
- Republicans: 9 percent
Only 78 percent of Democrats planning to vote for Biden in 2024 believe he will win. In contrast, 85 percent of voters intending to support Trump believe Trump will win, a seven-point difference.
Overall, a plurality of voters said Trump would defeat Biden in 2024:
- Trump: 44 percent
- Biden: 37 percent
- Unsure: 19 percent
Only a plurality of black voters believe that Biden will win. Biden received no such support among other demographics.
- Biden win: 62 percent
- Trump win: 18 percent
- Undecided: 21 percent
The poll surveyed 1,682 Americans from March 16 – 19, 2024, with a 3.6-point margin of error.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
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