WaPo Poll: Republican Senate Candidate Larry Hogan Leads Democrats by Double Digits in Blue Maryland

Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) enjoys double-digit leads over both of Maryland’s Democrat U.S. Senate candidates in hypothetical general election matchups, according to a poll.

The Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, published Wednesday, found the moderate Republican dominating both Rep. David Trone (D-MD) and Prince George’s County Commissioner Angela Alsobrooks (D) in separate matchups.

Hogan’s strong showing after announcing his Senate bid at the last minute in February bears significant implications in the national battle for a majority in the next Senate. The national map was already favorable to Republicans before Hogan entered the race, and now Democrats have to play defense in a state where they have won every Senate election since 1986.

In a race with Trone, the leading Democrat candidate who founded Total Wine & More, Hogan approaches a majority of support with 49 percent of the response. Trone sits 12 points back of Hogan at 37 percent, while another 14 percent of respondents were either undecided or skipped the question.

Independents and third-party voters break for Hogan by a two-to-one margin as he takes 54 percent of the demographic to Trone’s’ 27 percent. Hogan also leads with women and draws a whopping 36 percent of black respondents’ support in this matchup.

His overall lead expands when Trone is swapped out for Alsobrooks. In that scenario, Hogan registers 50 percent support among all respondents, while 36 percent back the county executive. Fifteen percent of respondents were undecided or did not answer.

Hogan enjoys a dominating lead over Alsobrooks among independent and third-party voters at 55 percent to 25 percent. He has a three-point edge with women voters and takes 31 percent of black support in that scenario.

Trone and Alsobrooks’s favorability ratings pale in comparison to Hogan’s. The former governor has the best rating of the three, 41 points above water, with 64 percent finding him favorable and 23 percent saying they have unfavorable impressions of him. Only 13 percent either did not have an opinion of Hogan or skipped the question.

Nearly the same amount of respondents (21 percent) find Trone unfavorable, but he does not come close to Hogan’s 64 percent mark regarding voters who have positive views of him. Just 33 percent find Trone favorable, while 46 percent had no opinion or opted not to answer.

Alsobrooks is even less known than Trone. Nearly six in ten respondents did not have opinions of her or skipped the question. Of those who did have an opinion, 26 percent had positive perceptions of her, and 15 percent held unfavorable ones.

The poll also shows Trone leading Alsobrooks 34 percent to 27 percent in the Democrat primary, with 39 percent of registered Democrat respondents up for grabs.

The survey was conducted March 5-12, 2024, among 1,004 registered Maryland voters. The margin of error for the full sample is ± 3.3 percentage points and ± 4.5 percent for the Democrat primary portion of the poll.