The Polls Were Largely Right, Except in Quirky Vermont

Republican presidential primary polls were mainly on target for Super Tuesday, aside from in Vermont, where former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley pulled out a surprise upset.

In some states, inaccurate estimations of margin size were also made. Still, the pollsters got things right in the swath of states that voted in Republican contests on Tuesday.

ALABAMA

With 95 percent of the vote reported in Alabama Wednesday afternoon, the New York Times’s election results showed Trump led Haley, who suspended her campaign Wednesday, at roughly 83 percent to 13 percent, a 70-point margin.

A Morning Consult survey, the last Alabama poll conducted before the primary, had Trump leading 87 percent to 12 percent — a 75-point margin. That survey, which was part of a broader Morning Consult Super Tuesday poll project that will be cited throughout this article, “polled 208 registered voters in each state between January 23 and February 5. The margin of error is ± three to seven percent,” as Breitbart News’s John Nolte previously noted.

That poll was pretty accurate, as well, in North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, and while much of the result is still to be processed in California, it looks to be on point there.

NORTH CAROLINA

The poll showed Trump leading Haley 77 percent to 23 percent in Tar Heel State, and the 45th president won by very similar numbers. The New York Times’s election results showed Trump at 74 percent to Haley’s 23 percent as of Wednesday afternoon, with less than five percent of the vote remaining.

A Highpoint University poll, published on March 1, was also pretty accurate. The poll of 394 likely GOP primary voters from February 16-23 put Trump at 69 percent and Haley at 24 percent.

OKLAHOMA

With more than 95 percent of the vote tabulated, Trump won 82 percent of the vote while 16 percent backed Haley, a 66-point margin, according to the Times. Morning Consult’s poll was similar to the actual results but showed a slightly larger margin between the candidates. It had Trump at 88 percent and Haley at 11 percent. Morning Consult did the lone polling in Oklahoma, according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation.

TENNESSEE

Trump had 77 percent of support in Tennessee, with 95 percent of the vote reported, beating Haley, who sat at 20 percent, by some 57 points. Morning Consult had Trump up 81 percent to Haley’s 18 percent, a 63-point margin, which was very close to the actual result. That was the only GOP primary poll out of Tennessee that focused just on a Haley versus Trump head-to-head, according to FiveThirtyEight.

TEXAS

Morning Consult had Trump leading in Texas by a 69-point margin in February. As of Wednesday afternoon, with 93 percent of the state’s vote accounted for, Trump led by 61 points with 78 percent to Haley’s 17 percent, the Times showed.

A University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research poll seemed nearly dead-on with its last poll of 522 likely voters from February 16-26. That poll had Trump leading Haley 75 percent to 17 percent with a ± 4.8 percent margin of error.

CALIFORNIA

In California, Trump won 78.6 percent of the vote to Haley’s 17.9 percent, though only 49 percent of the total has been tabulated, per the Times. If the trend holds up, Morning Consult will have been very accurate in the Golden State. Its Super Tuesday poll found Trump leading Haley 83 percent to 16 percent.

VIRGINIA

With more than 95 percent of the vote tabulated, Trump led Haley 63 percent to 35 percent in Virginia, according to the Times. While Trump’s 28-point margin is impressive, it was less than the 59 percent lead indicated in the Morning Consult poll that had him up 78 percent to 19 percent on the former governor.

A Roanoke College Poll, which sampled likely GOP primary voters from February 11-19, found that Trump led by a much thinner margin of 51 percent to 43 percent. The results ended up somewhere in the middle of these surveys, though both pollsters accurately predicted Trump’s win.

MASSACHUSETTS

Trump led Haley by 23 points in Massachusetts Wednesday morning, with 91 percent of the vote accounted for, registering at 60 percent and 37 percent, respectively, per the Times. The Morning Consult poll showed Trump ahead by a wider 41-point margin in the blue state at 69 percent to Haley’s 28 percent.

A Suffolk University poll conducted February 2-5 among 287 likely voters was more accurate. That survey found Trump leading 55 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was ± 5.8 percent.

MAINE

As of Wednesday morning, Trump was 47 points ahead of Haley in Maine at 73 percent to 26 percent when 92 percent of the vote was reported. A University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center poll, conducted February 15-19, had Trump earning 77 percent of the vote and Haley garnering 19 percent — a 58-point difference, not too far off from Trump’s actual margin. The poll sampled 267 likely GOP voters, and the margin of error was ± six percent.

A Pan Atlantic Research poll taken February 6-14 had Trump leading Haley by 42 points, a closer margin than UNH had forecasted.

MINNESOTA

The lone Minnesota poll relevant to the contours of a Trump v. Haley landscape — conducted by SurveyUSA and sponsored by KSTP, KAAL, and WDIO — showed Trump beating Haley by 64 points (79 percent to 14 percent). This was not quite as accurate as some of the other polling in other Super Tuesday states. Trump still blew out Haley, but it was by 40 points. He was ahead Wednesday with 69 percent to her 29 percent, with 95 percent reported.

VERMONT

Then there is Vermont, the lone state Haley won throughout her quixotic campaign. Haley led 50 percent to 46 percent, with nearly all votes tabulated Wednesday. The only Trump-Haley poll out of the Green Mountain State, conducted by the University of New Hampshire February 15-19, had Trump trouncing Haley 61 percent to 31 percent. That inaccurate poll sampled 309 likely voters with a ± 5.6 percent margin of error.

Notably, Vermont has open primaries, meaning constituents can vote in whichever primary they choose. In other words, liberals can vote in Republican primaries and conservatives can vote in Democrat primaries.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s data, there were no relevant Trump versus Haley head-to-head polls for GOP nominating contests in Utah, Alaska, Arkansas, or Colorado — the four other GOP Super Tuesday states.