Former President Donald Trump is two points ahead of President Joe Biden with Michigan voters as Tuesday’s primary looms, according to an Emerson College Polling/Hill survey published Monday.
The poll shows that 46 percent of Michigan voters support Trump versus 44 percent who support Biden in a potential general election matchup. Ten percent are undecided.
Notably, independent voters in Michigan break for Trump over Biden 43 percent to 37 percent.
Third-party candidates on the ballot bolster Trump, as 42 percent support the former president, 39 percent support Biden, six percent support Robert Kennedy Jr., and one percent support Cornel West and Jill Stein, respectively. Eleven percent remain undecided.
When split by party, an overwhelming majority of Republican primary voters — 69 percent — plan to support Trump. Only 20 percent plan to support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Eleven percent are undecided. Significantly, when voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Trump’s support increased to 76 percent, while support for Haley only increased to 24 percent.
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The top issues rank in the following order: economy (31 percent), immigration (13 percent), threats to democracy (12 percent), healthcare (ten percent), housing affordability (eight percent), education (seven percent), crime (seven percent), and abortion access (five percent).
Voters dramatically break for Trump regarding the economy, Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.
“Voters who say the economy is the top issue facing Michigan break for Trump over Biden, 56 percent to 33 percent, along with immigration 86 percent to seven percent,” Kimball said.
However, he said those who say “‘threats to democracy’ break for Biden 76% to 19%.”
Kimball said male voters in Michigan break for Trump by twelve points, 53 percent to 41 percent, whereas women voters break for Biden by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent, the polling shows.
Biden’s age at 81-years-old raises “serious doubts” with a majority of voters supporting him in 2024, at 57 percent, the poll shows. Forty-three percent say age is not a serious consideration for them.
Fewer voters are worried about Trump’s criminal indictments than Biden’s age, at 55 percent, while 45 percent do not regard his indictments as a serious consideration in their vote.
Biden’s age is more of a concern for voters younger than 50 than for voters older than 50. The poll shows that 63 percent of voters under 50 say Biden’s age raises doubts about voting for him, compared to 53 percent of voters over 50.
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The poll also shows that a majority — 52 percent — disapprove of the job that Biden is doing in office, compared to only 38 percent who approve of it.
In the Democrat primary, 75 percent support Biden, five percent support Dean Phillips, nine percent plan to vote “uncommitted,” and 12 percent remain undecided.
Muslim-American Democrats — angered that Biden is not doing more to reign in Israel in its war against Hamas — have led a campaign for voters to vote “uncommitted” in the primary to send a message to Biden.
According to the poll, 28 percent of voters younger than 30 plan to vote as “uncommitted” on Tuesday.
The survey was conducted February 20-24, 2024, with a sample of 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of ± three percentage points.
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