Poll: Maryland GOP’s Larry Hogan Leads or Ties Top Democrats in Hypothetical Senate Race Matchups

Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD), who declared his candidacy for Senate in Maryland on Friday, is already tied or leading the top two Democrat candidates in hypothetical general election matchups for retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-MD) seat, according to an Emerson College poll.

The strong showing for Hogan in blue Maryland spells big trouble for Democrats as they have to play defense in a state that has voted Democrat in every Senate election since 1986.

Hogan and Rep. David Trone (D-MD), the leading Democrat candidate, are in a dead heat at 42 percent apiece in a hypothetical general election race days after Hogan’s surprise announcement, the poll shows. Another 16 percent of respondents are undecided as to who they would support in this circumstance:

When Hogan is pitted against Angela Alsobrooks (D), county executive of Prince George’s County, the moderate Republican leads with 44 percent support to her 37 percent, while the share of undecided voters climbs to 19 percent.

Hogan, a critic of former President Donald Trump, is currently leading the Republican primary by a wide margin. He holds 43 percent of support among those who plan to vote in the Republican primary, while none of the other five candidates crack seven percent. The remaining 43 percent of respondents are undecided.

On the Democrat side of things, Trone, the founder of the brand Total Wines & More, is atop the primary field with 32 percent of backing to Alsobrooks’ 17 percent. No other candidate eclipses four percent, and 37 percent of likely Democrat voters are up for grabs.

Hogan’s entrance into the race on Friday brings major implications not only for the Maryland Senate race, but for the battle between Republicans and Democrats nationally for the majority in the next Congress.

The 2024 Senate map is extremely advantageous to Republicans, with 23 Democrat seats up for election this year to only 11 Republican seats. Moreover, the best two pick-up opportunities for Democrats – Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) seats – are truly longshots.

Conversely, Republicans have realistic pick-up opportunities in 10 of the 23 Democrat seats in November, with Hogan now in the fray. In January, Breitbart News extensively detailed a four-tiered plan for Republicans to take control of the upper chamber when they had legitimate chances at nine seats at the time.

The poll also gauged the likely presidential matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden, finding Biden has a 55 percent to 32 percent advantage in Maryland in a hypothetical two-way race. His lead over Trump drops to 16 points with the addition of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix.

The poll sampled 1,000 registered voters in the state from February 12-13, and the credibility interval is ± 3 percentage points.