Forty-nine percent of 18-29-year-olds “definitely” will not vote for a presidential candidate, down eight points since 2019, an Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School poll found Tuesday.
The potential lack of young voter turnout will likely benefit former President Donald Trump in his anticipated 2024 rematch against President Joe Biden.
The poll found:
- Voters under 30 support Biden over Trump by 11 points in a 2024 rematch (Biden 41 percent – Trump 30 percent).
- Only 38 percent of black Americans under 30 said they will “definitely vote” in 2024, down 12 points from 2019.
- Only 40 percent of Hispanic Americans said they will “definitely vote” in 2024, down 16 points since 2019.
The downward trend is poor news for Biden, who relies on young voters for support:
- Voters under 30 supported Biden over Trump by 24 points in 2020 (Biden 59 percent – Trump 35 percent), per Pew.
- Voters under 30 represented 15 percent of all 2020 voters, per Pew.
- Voters under age 30 made up 38 percent of new or irregular 2020 voters, per Pew.
The Harvard poll sampled 2,098 18-to-29-year-olds from October 23 to November 6, with a ± 2.86 percent margin of error.
“From a lack of trust in leaders on a variety of critical issues such as climate change, gun violence, and the war in the Middle East to worries about the economy and AI, young people’s concerns come through loud and clear in our new poll,” the Director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School Setti Warren said in a news release.
“As the 2024 campaign season kicks into high gear, candidates up and down the ballot would be wise to embrace the opportunity to listen to — and re-engage — this generation,” he added.
Follow Wendell Husebø on “X” @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.