Poll: Joe Biden Trails Donald Trump in Four of Six Key Swing States

Former President Donald Trump continues to outperform President Joe Biden in key swing states in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to the latest Emerson College poll. 

The poll, published on Thursday, shows Trump leading Biden in four of six crucial swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — while Biden leads in Michigan. The pair is tied in Wisconsin. Trump averages 47 percent of support among 4,303 likely voters in these states, while Biden averages 44 percent:

Emerson College sampled 778 likely voters in Arizona, finding that 46 percent of them back Trump for the presidency in a hypothetical matchup with Biden, who drew 44 percent of the response. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided in this scenario. 

In Georgia, Trump nears a double-digit lead after garnering 49 percent of the response among likely voters to Biden’s 41 percent. Ten percent of the 780 voters in the Peach State are undecided. 

Trump takes a three-point advantage against Biden among likely voters in Nevada. Of the 770 respondents, 47 percent back the 45th president, and 44 percent would support Biden, while 8 percent are up for grabs. 

Trump’s second strongest lead is in Pennsylvania, where 49 percent of the 816 polled participants are behind him in a rematch of the 2020 election. Biden sits 4 points back at 45 percent. 

The one state in which Biden holds an advantage is Michigan, where he and Trump register at 45 percent and 43 percent, respectively. The 13 percent of undecided voters in the Wolverine State is the largest of any state included in the poll. The poll surveyed 788 likely voters. 

Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in Wisconsin, according to the poll. Both candidates drew 45 percent of the response from the 819 likely voter respondents, with 10 percent of the vote up for grabs. 

Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said in a release that Biden holds an advantage among voters younger than 30, while Trump leads the way with middle-aged voters: 

Likely voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump by eight points across these six state polls, 47% to 39%, with 14% undecided. Trump’s base of support lies with the 50-64 year old general election voters, who support him over Biden by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%, while likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates: 46% to 46%

Emerson College Polling sampled 6,00 registered voters, including 4,303 likely voters, across these states. All surveys were conducted from October 30 – November 4, and the credibility interval in each state for the full sample of 6,000 registered voters is ± three percentage points:

The poll comes on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College survey of the same swing states released on Sunday. Trump led in every state except Wisconsin by noticeable margins in a hypothetical head-to-head race. He was up by eleven in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona and Michigan, and four percent in Pennsylvania, while Biden had a two-point advantage in Wisconsin, as Breitbart News’s John Nolte noted.