Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Michigan by seven percentage points but trails Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) in a pair of hypothetical 2024 matchups, according to a Marketing Resource Group (MRG) poll. 

The poll, conducted between October 2-8, shows that 42 percent of likely voters in Michigan would back Trump or would lean toward backing Trump for president in a race versus Biden. Conversely, 35 percent would support Biden or would lean toward voting for him, putting him at a significant disadvantage in a state that was pivotal in deciding the last two presidential elections. More than one in five voters say they would vote for someone else or would lean toward another candidate. 

“If the rematch takes place, it will be unique and considered like two incumbents running against each other; both have saturated name ID, records to defend having served in the same office, and voters have strong opinions one way or another about their candidate choice,” said MRG owner Jenell Leonard in a press release. 

“The waning support for President Biden from his base should be concerning to his party,” she added. “It conveys they no longer have faith in their candidate; they lack the confidence that he can win re-election. This is a candidate problem, not a party problem.”

Speaking with the Detroit News, Leonard expanded on the dynamic. 

“If the base doesn’t show up, they could likely see themselves in the same situation as they saw in 2016,” she said. 

Michigan was one of several Rust Belt states that helped propel Trump to the White House in 2016, as he beat out twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by more than 10,000 votes. Biden won the state by more than 150,000 votes in 2020. 

However, in a race between Trump and Whitmer, who told MSNBC in August she is “proud” to back Biden, Trump trails the Democrat governor. Of the respondents, 40 percent back or lean toward Trump, while 46 percent would vote for or lean toward supporting Whitmer. 

“Whitmer has consistently had approvals above 50 percent since Fall of 2020,” Tom Shields, a senior adviser at MRG, stated in the release. “She turned a purple seat blue in the last election and could be a viable national candidate that could strengthen the Democrats’ chances of winning Michigan next year.”

The poll sampled 600 likely voters, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.