Survey: Donald Trump Beats Joe Biden by Three Percent; Ron DeSantis Loses to Biden

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election match-up, while Biden leads Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in their hypothetical contest, according to the latest Morning Consult survey. 

The survey, released Tuesday, shows that 44 percent of roughly 6,000 registered voters sampled would back Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election. He sits three points ahead of Biden, who is at 41 percent. Ten percent say they would back another candidate, and five percent are undecided. 

Conversely, Biden leads DeSantis 42 percent to 40 percent. In that scenario, another six percent are undecided, and 12 percent support somebody else. 

The margin of error for the hypothetical general election races is plus or minus one percentage point. 

Trump continues to dominate the GOP primary field, with 57 percent of support. The number is unchanged since last week’s Morning Consult poll. DeSantis fell back to 19 percent after climbing to 20 percent in the previous survey, while former Vice President Mike Pence remains in third place with seven percent of support.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy enjoys the most pronounced movement in this poll, jumping to six percent after posting three percent last week. However, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) are still gridlocked at three percent, while former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) dropped one point this week to two percent. 

Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) holds one percent of support, while Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) did not secure a percentage.

The poll also asked Trump and DeSantis supporters who their second-choice candidates would be. A plurality of Trump supporters, 42 percent, say DeSantis is their second choice, while 45 percent of DeSantis voters identify Trump as their second option. 

Another 14 percent of Trump voters say Pence is their backup choice, while 13 percent say Ramaswamy and seven percent choose Scott. Similarly, Pence is the second option for 15 percent of DeSantis voters, followed by Scott at 14 percent and Ramaswamy at 11 percent. 

The Republican primary aspect of the survey sampled 3,650 potential GOP primary voters, and its margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. Morning Consult conducted all aspects of the survey between June 23-25.