Math is math, and because math is math, there’s a chance that once “all the votes are counted” President Donald Trump will not have enough votes to win a second term. There’s also a chance he might have enough votes. We don’t know…
This piece is a look at what I believe a contested election could look like if Trump does not have the votes — and what I’m talking about is something way beyond a recount.
According to media reports, most of the votes that remain uncounted, especially in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that will decide the election, appear to primarily come from the big cities in those states, the urban areas that vote overwhelmingly Democrat.
Some of those uncounted ballots are absentee ballots. And if past is prologue, because Democrats vote by mail at a much higher level than Republicans, we’re talking an even higher ratio of Democrat ballots that remain uncounted.
Let me give you an example…
Last time I looked, Trump was up by about 500,000 votes in Pennsylvania, his biggest lead by far in any of these outstanding states. According to various media reports, there are more than two million uncounted Pennsylvania ballots. Despite the fact those outstanding ballots would have to run seventy to eighty percent for former Vice President Joe Biden in order for him to win, that is very real possibility.
So let’s assume that happens. Let’s assume that once the initial count is done, Joe Biden has enough electoral votes to become president…
Then what?
Trump can concede, which he will not do.
Trump can ask for a recount, which will mean running the same ballots through the same machines and almost certainly coming up with the same result: President-elect Joe Biden.
Or, Trump can ask for a recount (as he has said he will do in Wisconsin) and then take it a step further, take this into territory we have never been before… And that’s where I think we might be headed should Trump end up contesting the election.
Trump is not just going to contest the election and demand every vote be counted. No, my guess is that he’s going to contest the election and demand every vote be verified.
Verifying every vote is a very different thing from counting every vote.
We know who voted. Whether it was in-person or through the mail, we know who voted. We don’t know who this person voted for, but every voter reveals their name and address when they vote.
That’s where I believe Trump might go with this.
There’s no question Trump believes he’s a victim of voter fraud. He’s complained about this countless times over the years, did so again on Tuesday night when he essentially declared himself the winner of the 2020 election, and did so Wednesday morning….
“Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled,” Trump tweeted. “Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the “pollsters” got it completely & historically wrong!”
The key phrase there is “surprise ballot dump.”
The Trump campaign is also saying Trump will win after every “legal vote” is counted.
We have been hearing this a lot today from team Trump and Rush Limbaugh… Some variation of The President will win once all the legal votes are counted. I believe this language is deliberate in laying the groundwork.
So what does that mean?
It could mean Trump sues to demand a look at the ballots to ensure — for instance — no one voted twice; once by mail and again in person… That no votes were cast by people who are deceased or who moved out the state. It could mean Trump demands the states allow investigators to verify every single vote (especially the mailed ballots) is legitimate.
What does he have to lose?
Nothing.
Trump is a sitting president with nothing to lose, a president who might be behind the eight ball in the vote count, but who never has to win another election or worry again about his job approval rating. That gives him enormous freedom to do what he believes must be done, to push his case, to move heaven and earth to dig into the workings of these Big Democrat Machines in cities like Detroit, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia.
So we could be in for a grueling and bitter post-election period that will make Florida 2000 and its dimpled chads look like Sunday school.
To be clear, this is not me screaming fraud. I’ll have more to say on that later. All I’m doing here is explaining what I see as the potential lay of the land.
It is no secret that for decades Republicans have worried about what goes on in these Big Democrat Machine cities. There have been books written about how the GOP must win by the margin of fraud. This is why the GOP wants voter ID. This is why the GOP wants voter rolls updated when people move out of state or die. Democrats fight to the death against these reforms, which only makes Republicans more suspicious.
Bottom line, I think Trump could very well go scorched earth to find out once and for all if these suspicions about voter fraud are accurate.
Trump will not just demand recounts, he’s probably going to demand that each of these ballots, each of these votes, matches to the person that specific vote is supposed to match up with.
Whether he will find anything or not, no one knows. But I think in Trump’s mind, he can use this as an opportunity to “blow the lid off the whole thing,” and Republicans who are sincere about their Big Democrat Machine fraud concerns should be thrilled.
As painstakingly difficult as this approach might be, and as long as it might take to complete, keep in mind, it is possible to verify if the votes that were cast are indeed legitimate.
Trump will have to sue. He’ll have to prevail in court. But don’t be surprised if that’s the play.
It’s already happening in Michigan… the Trump campaign just filed a lawsuit to “review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access. President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.
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