A new CNN poll reveals a majority of Americans predict President Donald Trump will win a second term in 2020.
The survey, conducted with SSRS, shows 54 percent state their “best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election,” while 41 percent believe he will be a one-term president. The stats released Wednesday show Americans are more optimistic about President Trump’s re-election chances than in December. Last year, 51 percent believed the president would be defeated in the next election.
CNN further notes: “Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll).”
A random national sample of 1,006 adults respondents were surveyed for the poll between May 28 and 31. They were contacted via telephone and polled by a live interviewer. The poll has a sampling margin error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points and is larger for subgroups.
The CNN poll comes after a New York Times article in which several analysts said that they expect President Trump to win a second term.
Yale professor Ray Fair — who has long relied on economic metrics, such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation, to predict presidential election results — said President Trump should capture roughly 54 percent of the vote, while his Democrat rival will receive 45.4 percent.
American University professor Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted President Trump would triumph over Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, concurs with Fair.
“Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him,” he said in a recent interview with CNN. “I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the [2018] midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president’s limited appeal to voters.”
Moody’s Analytics chief economist also predicts President Trump will win in 2020, citing 12 models that evaluate “economic trends” at the state level to predict the election.
“If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models — and pretty handily,” Zandi said. “In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.”
President Trump’s current approval rating, according to a Real Clear Politics Average, stands at a steady 43.8 percent.
He will face one of 24 Democrats running for the White House in 2020.