Exclusive Value Add Ratings for All 227 Pitchers in Final Week of Season

The 4500th pitching start was entered in the database Sunday, as 227 pitchers have now made the five starters necessary needed to make the list. With the final playoff spots up for grabs in the seasons final week, the following is an alphabetical list of all pitchers so that readers can compare match-ups. There is also one adjustment to the system for Innings Pitched in a game in which the pitcher is given no chance to win.

The 4,500 games entered into the database through Sunday (and found at www.valueaddbaseball.com shortly) break into three categories that are explained in links off the sites.

1. In 661 of the games (15%) the starting pitcher did not give himself a chance to earn a victory because he did not last five innings, so he gets a negative rating of at least -0.6 for the game.

2. In 2,947 of the games (65%+) the team gave the pitcher some chance to win the game – at least a 1.00 ERA Needed to win and in some cases much higher – though the highest total we list is a 36.00 ERA Needed to win. In those cases, as explained on links from the site, the pitcher is credited based on how likely it is that a replacement pitcher would have been able to win the game. Items 1 and 2 equal the “Value Raw” on the database which tells you how many wins a pitcher has truly been worth to his team.

3. The one change in the formula impacts only the adjustment to the Raw Value for the 892 (20%) games in which the pitcher went at least five innings but was given no chance to win (a 0.00 or worse ERA Needed to win, such as when Chris Sale was given six runs of support but had his bullpen given up six in the ninth inning this weekend to cost him the victory). One fair criticism of the formula as originally presented was that it did not measure the impact of a pitcher getting in more innings to save his bullpen even when the team did not give him a chance to win. In the original formula, every pitcher who was given no chance to win but went at least five innings was given an adjustment of 0.2. After running the numbers on the 892 starts in question, it was determined that the average starter who gets a 0.00 ERA Needed to win pitches 6.18 innings. Instead of being given a blanked 0.2 for these games, the pitcher is now given an adjustment equal to his innings pitched MINUS five MULTIPLIED BY 0.2. These numbers still match up so that on balance pitchers will average the same value in games in which they are given no chance to win as when they are given a chance to win.

The following is the alphabetical list of the rankings for all 227 players for whom we have at least five starts entered into our database.

 

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Value Add
158	Alfredo Aceves	BOS	1.61
182	Andrew Albers	MIN	0.48
137	Henderson Alvarez	MIA	2.59
171	Jose Alvarez	DET	0.81
174	Brett Anderson	OAK	0.75
95	Chris Archer	TB	5.12
144	Jake Arrieta	CHC	2.23
44	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	8.89
145	Dylan Axelrod	CHW	2.16
31	Homer Bailey	CIN	9.99
169	Brandon Beachy	ATL	0.98
205	Josh Beckett	LAD	-0.58
219	Erik Bedard	HOU	-1.27
213	Chad Bettis	COL	-1.08
218	Joe Blanton	LAA	-1.26
162	Jeremy Bonderman	SEA	1.24
190	Zach Britton	BAL	0.06
46	Clay Buchholz	BOS	8.78
19	Mark Buehrle	TOR	10.89
15	Madison Bumgarner	SF	11.39
197	Hiram Burgos	MIL	-0.40
57	A.J. Burnett	PIT	7.79
98	Trevor Cahill	ARI	4.80
67	Matt Cain	SF	7.04
149	Chris Capuano	LAD	1.90
222	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	-1.47
60	Andrew Cashner	SD	7.53
12	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	12.25
124	Tyler Chatwood	COL	3.20
97	Bruce Chen	KC	4.85
107	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	4.04
112	Tony Cingrani	CIN	3.75
211	Tyler Cloyd	PHI	-0.95
91	Alex Cobb	TB	5.31
81	Gerrit Cole	PIT	5.78
21	Bartolo Colon	OAK	10.88
2	Patrick Corbin	ARI	15.18
71	Kevin Correia	MIN	6.67
118	Jarred Cosart	HOU	3.45
154	Johnny Cueto	CIN	1.67
134	John Danks	CHW	2.73
30	Yu Darvish	TEX	10.05
148	Wade Davis	KC	1.93
23	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	10.77
88	Samuel Deduno	MIN	5.39
72	Randall Delgado	ARI	6.54
56	Ryan Dempster	BOS	7.94
143	Ross Detwiler	WSH	2.24
202	Scott Diamond	MIN	-0.45
35	R.A. Dickey	TOR	9.72
78	Felix Doubront	BOS	5.97
199	Danny Duffy	KC	-0.41
122	Nate Eovaldi	MIA	3.24
155	Robbie Erlin	SD	1.65
80	Marco Estrada	MIL	5.84
65	Scott Feldman	BAL	7.16
27	Jose Fernandez	MIA	10.32
166	Stephen Fife	LAD	1.06
203	Alfredo Figaro	MIL	-0.53
18	Doug Fister	DET	10.91
210	Gavin Floyd	CHW	-0.94
225	Jeff Francis	COL	-1.83
94	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	5.15
119	Jaime Garcia	STL	3.32
141	Freddy Garcia	ATL	2.30
146	Jon Garland	COL	2.07
66	Matt Garza	TEX	7.08
142	Chad Gaudin	SF	2.26
186	Kevin Gausman	BAL	0.26
41	Dillon Gee	NYM	9.30
200	Kyle Gibson	MIN	-0.41
177	Jeanmar Gomez	PIT	0.60
58	Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	7.75
61	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	7.43
216	Tom Gorzelanny	MIL	-1.18
138	Sonny Gray	OAK	2.56
13	Zack Greinke	LAD	11.41
20	A.J. Griffin	OAK	10.88
159	Justin Grimm	TEX	1.56
33	Jeremy Guthrie	KC	9.80
185	Roy Halladay	PHI	0.38
40	Cole Hamels	PHI	9.31
132	Jason Hammel	BAL	2.80
217	Donovan Hand	MIL	-1.23
187	Tommy Hanson	LAA	0.21
214	J.A. Happ	TOR	-1.10
172	Aaron Harang	NYM	0.78
131	Dan Haren	WSH	2.90
160	Lucas Harrell	HOU	1.54
36	Matt Harvey	NYM	9.69
140	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	2.41
89	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	5.38
221	Johnny Hellweg	MIL	-1.39
175	Liam Hendriks	MIN	0.72
39	Felix Hernandez	SEA	9.31
151	Roberto Hernandez	TB	1.80
191	Pedro Hernandez	MIN	0.03
22	Derek Holland	TEX	10.81
87	Tim Hudson	ATL	5.41
196	Phil Hughes	NYY	-0.38
215	Philip Humber	HOU	-1.16
10	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	12.33
126	Edwin Jackson	CHC	3.04
52	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	8.52
198	Josh Johnson	TOR	-0.41
156	Taylor Jordan	WSH	1.64
116	Scott Kazmir	CLE	3.51
76	Joe Kelly	STL	6.11
64	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	7.25
108	Ian Kennedy	ARI	3.99
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	15.42
104	Dallas Keuchel	HOU	4.26
92	Corey Kluber	CLE	5.26
152	Tom Koehler	MIA	1.77
14	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	11.40
34	John Lackey	BOS	9.75
153	John Lannan	PHI	1.70
4	Mat Latos	CIN	13.76
25	Mike Leake	CIN	10.40
223	Wade LeBlanc	MIA	-1.70
7	Cliff Lee	PHI	12.77
28	Jon Lester	BOS	10.10
207	Ted Lilly	LAD	-0.82
74	Tim Lincecum	SF	6.41
173	Josh Lindblom	TEX	0.78
45	Francisco Liriano	PIT	8.84
70	Jeff Locke	PIT	6.69
42	Kyle Lohse	MIL	9.07
123	Jordan Lyles	HOU	3.21
62	Lance Lynn	STL	7.40
167	Tyler Lyons	STL	1.05
220	Matt Magill	LAD	-1.36
90	Paul Maholm	ATL	5.38
181	Shaun Marcum	NYM	0.50
100	Jason Marquis	SD	4.56
224	Ethan Martin	PHI	-1.72
55	Justin Masterson	CLE	7.97
170	Daisuke Matsuzaka	NYM	0.95
206	Brandon Maurer	SEA	-0.65
86	Zach McAllister	CLE	5.50
117	Brandon McCarthy	ARI	3.49
163	James McDonald	PIT	1.21
32	Kris Medlen	ATL	9.87
179	Jenrry Mejia	NYM	0.57
193	Luis Mendoza	KC	-0.21
109	Wade Miley	ARI	3.91
29	Shelby Miller	STL	10.05
84	Tommy Milone	OAK	5.57
37	Mike Minor	ATL	9.68
69	Matt Moore	TB	6.81
164	Brandon Morrow	TOR	1.14
93	Charlie Morton	PIT	5.20
135	Juan Nicasio	COL	2.68
110	Jonathon Niese	NYM	3.88
17	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	10.92
73	Bud Norris	BAL	6.48
68	Ivan Nova	NYY	6.99
113	Brett Oberholtzer	HOU	3.62
121	Alexi Ogando	TEX	3.24
114	Ross Ohlendorf	WSH	3.59
226	Roy Oswalt	COL	-1.94
38	Jarrod Parker	OAK	9.51
204	Brad Peacock	HOU	-0.56
79	Jake Peavy	BOS	5.90
147	Mike Pelfrey	MIN	2.00
82	Wily Peralta	MIL	5.73
77	Martin Perez	TEX	6.06
111	Yusmeiro Petit	SF	3.84
96	Jonathan Pettibone	PHI	5.09
85	Andy Pettitte	NYY	5.56
102	David Phelps	NYY	4.44
51	Rick Porcello	DET	8.59
48	David Price	TB	8.65
63	Jose Quintana	CHW	7.39
129	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	2.98
161	Todd Redmond	TOR	1.41
227	Clayton Richard	SD	-2.25
105	Garrett Richards	LAA	4.21
168	Andre Rienzo	CHW	1.03
127	Wandy Rodriguez	PIT	3.00
125	Esmil Rogers	TOR	3.09
130	Tyson Ross	SD	2.96
150	Chris Rusin	CHC	1.85
26	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	10.34
59	CC Sabathia	NYY	7.69
195	Danny Salazar	CLE	-0.37
3	Chris Sale	CHW	13.89
54	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	8.00
183	Alex Sanabia	MIA	0.47
43	Anibal Sanchez	DET	9.02
47	Ervin Santana	KC	8.68
103	Hector Santiago	CHW	4.30
133	Joe Saunders	SEA	2.77
5	Max Scherzer	DET	13.69
11	James Shields	KC	12.31
180	Tyler Skaggs	ARI	0.55
157	Kevin Slowey	MIA	1.62
194	Burch Smith	SD	-0.27
83	Dan Straily	OAK	5.72
106	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	4.19
75	Eric Stults	SD	6.24
9	Julio Teheran	ATL	12.38
201	Nick Tepesch	TEX	-0.44
136	Tyler Thornburg	MIL	2.61
24	Chris Tillman	BAL	10.46
178	Carlos Torres	NYM	0.59
139	Jacob Turner	MIA	2.56
115	Jason Vargas	LAA	3.58
49	Justin Verlander	DET	8.62
165	Carlos Villanueva	CHC	1.09
208	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	-0.84
128	Edinson Volquez	LAD	2.98
188	Michael Wacha	STL	0.15
8	Adam Wainwright	STL	12.59
176	P.J. Walters	MIN	0.61
189	Chien-Ming Wang	TOR	0.11
53	Jered Weaver	LAA	8.36
212	Allen Webster	BOS	-1.07
99	Jake Westbrook	STL	4.70
120	Zack Wheeler	NYM	3.32
101	Jerome Williams	LAA	4.44
16	C.J. Wilson	LAA	11.19
50	Travis Wood	CHC	8.62
184	Alex Wood	ATL	0.38
192	Vance Worley	MIN	-0.20
6	Jordan Zimmerman	WSH	13.46
209	Barry Zito	SF	-0.88